Eintracht Frankfurt scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Eintracht Frankfurt 52.0% · Draw 23.4% · 1. FC Köln 24.6% Why Eintracht Frankfurt is favoured Eintracht Frankfurt's Elo (1489) is +35 over 1. FC Köln (1454); high confidence. Recent: Eintracht Frankfurt 1W-2D-2L · 1. FC Köln 2W-1D-2L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Eintracht Frankfurt -1.4, 1. FC Köln -0.4. Form depth Eintracht Frankfurt: avg 1.8 goals scored, 3.2 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). 1. FC Köln: avg 1.6 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~4.3 total goals (Eintracht Frankfurt 1.9, 1. FC Köln 2.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments 1. FC Köln has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours Eintracht Frankfurt on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Eintracht Frankfurt 0W, 5D, 1. FC Köln 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 3-4, 2-0.