SV Werder Bremen scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SV Werder Bremen 39.2% · Draw 22.7% · SC Paderborn 07 38.1% Why SV Werder Bremen is favoured SC Paderborn 07's Elo (1517) is +74 over SV Werder Bremen (1443); low confidence. Recent: SV Werder Bremen 2W-2D-1L · SC Paderborn 07 1W-1D-3L (last 5). Goal differential per game: SV Werder Bremen +0.0, SC Paderborn 07 -0.8. Form depth SV Werder Bremen: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 0/3 on the road). SC Paderborn 07: avg 0.6 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (SV Werder Bremen 1.7, SC Paderborn 07 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SV Werder Bremen 0W, 1D, SC Paderborn 07 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 1-5. Calibration Raw model: 41.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context SC Paderborn 07 has 1 more day of rest (SV Werder Bremen 47d, SC Paderborn 07 48d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.