TSG 1899 Hoffenheim scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 63.7% · Draw 20.1% · Hamburger SV 16.2% Why TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is favoured TSG 1899 Hoffenheim's Elo (1530) is +113 over Hamburger SV (1417); high confidence. Recent: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1W-0D-3L · Hamburger SV 1W-0D-3L (last 4). Goal differential per game: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim -0.8, Hamburger SV -2.8. Form depth TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: avg 1.8 goals scored, 2.5 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Hamburger SV: avg 0.5 goals scored, 3.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~4.0 total goals (TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.5, Hamburger SV 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0W, 2D, Hamburger SV 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-2, 4-1. Calibration Raw model: 62.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 63.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.