1. FC Union Berlin scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities 1. FC Union Berlin 35.1% · Draw 24.1% · SV 07 Elversberg 40.8% Why SV 07 Elversberg is favoured SV 07 Elversberg's Elo (1498) is +40 over 1. FC Union Berlin (1457); low confidence. Recent: 1. FC Union Berlin 0W-1D-3L · SV 07 Elversberg 2W-1D-1L (last 4). Goal differential per game: 1. FC Union Berlin -3.3, SV 07 Elversberg +0.3. Form depth 1. FC Union Berlin: avg 1.0 goals scored, 4.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). SV 07 Elversberg: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). 1. FC Union Berlin on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.5 total goals (1. FC Union Berlin 1.4, SV 07 Elversberg 3.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 37.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 35.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.