SC Freiburg scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Freiburg 56.2% · Draw 23.0% · FC Schalke 04 20.8% Why SC Freiburg is favoured SC Freiburg's Elo (1517) is +38 over FC Schalke 04 (1478); low confidence. Recent: SC Freiburg 3W-1D-0L · FC Schalke 04 1W-2D-1L (last 4). Goal differential per game: SC Freiburg +2.3, FC Schalke 04 -0.3. Form depth SC Freiburg: avg 3.0 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). FC Schalke 04: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (SC Freiburg 2.0, FC Schalke 04 0.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — SC Freiburg 0W, 2D, FC Schalke 04 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-0, 0-2, 4-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.