SC Paderborn 07 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Paderborn 07 31.5% · Draw 22.3% · VfB Stuttgart 46.2% Why VfB Stuttgart is favoured VfB Stuttgart's Elo (1611) is +94 over SC Paderborn 07 (1517); low confidence. Recent: SC Paderborn 07 1W-1D-2L · VfB Stuttgart 2W-0D-3L (last 5). Goal differential per game: SC Paderborn 07 -0.5, VfB Stuttgart -0.2. Form depth SC Paderborn 07: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). VfB Stuttgart: avg 1.8 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). VfB Stuttgart on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (SC Paderborn 07 1.4, VfB Stuttgart 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SC Paderborn 07 0W, 1D, VfB Stuttgart 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 34.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 31.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context VfB Stuttgart has 1 more day of rest (SC Paderborn 07 41d, VfB Stuttgart 42d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.