Borussia Mönchengladbach scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Borussia Mönchengladbach 38.2% · Draw 29.0% · 1. FSV Mainz 05 32.7% Why Borussia Mönchengladbach is favoured 1. FSV Mainz 05's Elo (1513) is +37 over Borussia Mönchengladbach (1477); high confidence. Recent: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W-0D-3L · 1. FSV Mainz 05 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Borussia Mönchengladbach -3.0, 1. FSV Mainz 05 +1.0. Form depth Borussia Mönchengladbach: avg 1.0 goals scored, 4.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). 1. FSV Mainz 05: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). Borussia Mönchengladbach on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.0 total goals (Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.0, 1. FSV Mainz 05 3.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 6 prior meetings — Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W, 6D, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 0-1, 1-3.