Hamburger SV scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Hamburger SV 38.3% · Draw 29.0% · 1. FC Köln 32.6% Why Hamburger SV is favoured 1. FC Köln's Elo (1454) is +36 over Hamburger SV (1417); high confidence. Recent: Hamburger SV 0W-0D-3L · 1. FC Köln 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Hamburger SV -4.0, 1. FC Köln -0.7. Form depth Hamburger SV: avg 0.0 goals scored, 4.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). 1. FC Köln: avg 1.7 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Hamburger SV on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.0 total goals (Hamburger SV 1.2, 1. FC Köln 2.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Hamburger SV 0W, 2D, 1. FC Köln 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-1, 4-1.