FC Schalke 04 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Schalke 04 40.4% · Draw 29.5% · SV 07 Elversberg 30.1% Why FC Schalke 04 is favoured SV 07 Elversberg's Elo (1498) is +20 over FC Schalke 04 (1478); low confidence. Recent: FC Schalke 04 1W-1D-1L · SV 07 Elversberg 2W-0D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: FC Schalke 04 -0.3, SV 07 Elversberg +0.3. Form depth FC Schalke 04: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). SV 07 Elversberg: avg 2.7 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.7 total goals (FC Schalke 04 1.7, SV 07 Elversberg 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — FC Schalke 04 0W, 1D, SV 07 Elversberg 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 42.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context SV 07 Elversberg has 1 more day of rest (FC Schalke 04 20d, SV 07 Elversberg 21d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.