SC Freiburg scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Freiburg 49.8% · Draw 27.7% · Borussia Mönchengladbach 22.6% Why SC Freiburg is favoured SC Freiburg's Elo (1517) is +40 over Borussia Mönchengladbach (1477); high confidence. Recent: SC Freiburg 2W-0D-0L · Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W-0D-2L (last 2). Goal differential per game: SC Freiburg +2.0, Borussia Mönchengladbach -2.0. Form depth SC Freiburg: avg 2.5 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Borussia Mönchengladbach: avg 1.5 goals scored, 3.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). SC Freiburg on a 2-match winning streak. Borussia Mönchengladbach on a 2-match losing streak. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — SC Freiburg 0W, 5D, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 0-0, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 57.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Borussia Mönchengladbach has 1 more day of rest (SC Freiburg 12d, Borussia Mönchengladbach 13d).