1. FC Union Berlin scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities 1. FC Union Berlin 42.5% · Draw 29.4% · FC Schalke 04 28.0% Why 1. FC Union Berlin is favoured FC Schalke 04's Elo (1478) is +17 over 1. FC Union Berlin (1461); low confidence. Recent: 1. FC Union Berlin 0W-1D-1L · FC Schalke 04 0W-1D-1L (last 2). Goal differential per game: 1. FC Union Berlin -2.0, FC Schalke 04 -1.5. Form depth 1. FC Union Berlin: avg 1.5 goals scored, 3.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). FC Schalke 04: avg 0.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — 1. FC Union Berlin 0W, 4D, FC Schalke 04 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 1-6, 0-0. Calibration Raw model: 46.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context 1. FC Union Berlin has 1 more day of rest (1. FC Union Berlin 13d, FC Schalke 04 12d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.