SV 07 Elversberg scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SV 07 Elversberg 33.9% · Draw 23.3% · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 42.8% Calibration Raw model: 27.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 33.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.