Deportivo Alavés scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Deportivo Alavés 36.3% · Draw 23.5% · Villarreal CF 40.2% Why Villarreal CF is favoured Villarreal CF's Elo (1603) is +151 over Deportivo Alavés (1452); high confidence. Recent: Deportivo Alavés 1W-1D-0L · Villarreal CF 0W-2D-0L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Deportivo Alavés +1.5, Villarreal CF +0.0. Form depth Deportivo Alavés: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Villarreal CF: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/2 on the road). Villarreal CF on a 2-draw streak. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Deportivo Alavés 0W, 3D, Villarreal CF 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 3-1, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 31.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 36.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.