Charlton Athletic FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Charlton Athletic FC 47.0% · Draw 24.9% · Bolton Wanderers FC 28.1% Why Charlton Athletic FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1498 vs 1498) — winner depends on context. Recent: Charlton Athletic FC 0W-5D-5L · Bolton Wanderers FC 3W-1D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Charlton Athletic FC -1.3, Bolton Wanderers FC -0.8. Form depth Charlton Athletic FC: avg 0.6 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). Bolton Wanderers FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 2.4 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Charlton Athletic FC on a 3-match losing streak. Bolton Wanderers FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Charlton Athletic FC 1.5, Bolton Wanderers FC 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Bolton Wanderers FC has a stronger recent record (30% vs 0%) — model favours Charlton Athletic FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Charlton Athletic FC 0W, 2D, Bolton Wanderers FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 48.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.