Derby County FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Derby County FC 47.7% · Draw 24.5% · Norwich City FC 27.8% Why Derby County FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1486 vs 1476) — winner depends on context. Recent: Derby County FC 1W-3D-6L · Norwich City FC 4W-0D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Derby County FC -1.0, Norwich City FC +0.0. Form depth Derby County FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Norwich City FC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Norwich City FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (Derby County FC 1.3, Norwich City FC 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Norwich City FC has a stronger recent record (40% vs 10%) — model favours Derby County FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Derby County FC 0W, 3D, Norwich City FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 1-0, 1-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.