Birmingham City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Birmingham City FC 57.0% · Draw 22.3% · Millwall FC 20.7% Why Birmingham City FC is favoured Birmingham City FC's Elo (1514) is +57 over Millwall FC (1457); low confidence. Recent: Birmingham City FC 5W-3D-2L · Millwall FC 3W-3D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Birmingham City FC +0.9, Millwall FC +0.1. Form depth Birmingham City FC: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Millwall FC: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (Birmingham City FC 1.8, Millwall FC 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Birmingham City FC 0W, 4D, Millwall FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-0, 4-0, 1-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.