Millwall FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Millwall FC 43.3% · Draw 24.1% · Derby County FC 32.7% Why Millwall FC is favoured Derby County FC's Elo (1486) is +29 over Millwall FC (1457); low confidence. Recent: Millwall FC 2W-3D-5L · Derby County FC 1W-3D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Millwall FC -0.6, Derby County FC -1.0. Form depth Millwall FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Derby County FC: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Millwall FC 1.5, Derby County FC 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Millwall FC 0W, 3D, Derby County FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 1-1, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 44.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.