Middlesbrough FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Middlesbrough FC 47.7% · Draw 24.3% · Charlton Athletic FC 28.0% Why Middlesbrough FC is favoured Charlton Athletic FC's Elo (1498) is +16 over Middlesbrough FC (1482); low confidence. Recent: Middlesbrough FC 6W-4D-0L · Charlton Athletic FC 1W-5D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Middlesbrough FC +1.0, Charlton Athletic FC -0.9. Form depth Middlesbrough FC: avg 2.4 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Charlton Athletic FC: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Charlton Athletic FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Middlesbrough FC 2.0, Charlton Athletic FC 1.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Middlesbrough FC 0W, 1D, Charlton Athletic FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 1-2, 0-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.