Stoke City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Stoke City FC 56.6% · Draw 22.9% · Preston North End FC 20.5% Why Stoke City FC is favoured Stoke City FC's Elo (1468) is +42 over Preston North End FC (1426); low confidence. Recent: Stoke City FC 6W-2D-2L · Preston North End FC 1W-2D-7L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Stoke City FC +0.5, Preston North End FC -1.2. Form depth Stoke City FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Preston North End FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Stoke City FC 1.8, Preston North End FC 1.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Stoke City FC 0W, 4D, Preston North End FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 0-0, 1-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.