Preston North End FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Preston North End FC 25.0% · Draw 21.9% · West Bromwich Albion FC 53.1% Why West Bromwich Albion FC is favoured West Bromwich Albion FC's Elo (1539) is +112 over Preston North End FC (1426); low confidence. Recent: Preston North End FC 1W-1D-8L · West Bromwich Albion FC 5W-2D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Preston North End FC -1.4, West Bromwich Albion FC +0.2. Form depth Preston North End FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). West Bromwich Albion FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). Preston North End FC on a 3-match losing streak. West Bromwich Albion FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Preston North End FC 1.0, West Bromwich Albion FC 1.8) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Preston North End FC 0W, 2D, West Bromwich Albion FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-2, 2-1, 3-1. Calibration Raw model: 29.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 25.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.