Sheffield United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sheffield United FC 52.3% · Draw 23.8% · Derby County FC 23.9% Why Sheffield United FC is favoured Sheffield United FC's Elo (1509) is +23 over Derby County FC (1486); low confidence. Recent: Sheffield United FC 4W-2D-4L · Derby County FC 1W-3D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Sheffield United FC +0.1, Derby County FC -1.0. Form depth Sheffield United FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). Derby County FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (0/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Derby County FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Sheffield United FC 1.6, Derby County FC 1.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Sheffield United FC 0W, 1D, Derby County FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 1-3, 0-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.