Burnley FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Burnley FC 51.1% · Draw 22.8% · Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 26.1% Why Burnley FC is favoured Burnley FC's Elo (1390) is +51 over Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (1339); high confidence. Recent: Burnley FC 1W-5D-4L · Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 4W-2D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Burnley FC -0.4, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC +0.2. Form depth Burnley FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/5 on the road). Wolverhampton Wanderers FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.4 total goals (Burnley FC 1.5, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Wolverhampton Wanderers FC has a stronger recent record (44% vs 10%) — model favours Burnley FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Burnley FC 0W, 4D, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 2-3, 1-1.