Norwich City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Norwich City FC 66.6% · Draw 18.7% · Southampton FC 14.7% Why Norwich City FC is favoured Norwich City FC's Elo (1490) is +148 over Southampton FC (1342); low confidence. Recent: Norwich City FC 3W-0D-6L · Southampton FC 5W-2D-2L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Norwich City FC -0.2, Southampton FC +1.1. Form depth Norwich City FC: avg 1.9 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/5 on the road). Southampton FC: avg 2.2 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (5/5 at home, 0/4 on the road). Norwich City FC on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.7 total goals (Norwich City FC 1.5, Southampton FC 2.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Southampton FC has a stronger recent record (56% vs 33%) — model favours Norwich City FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Norwich City FC 0W, 2D, Southampton FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 2-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 64.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 66.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Norwich City FC has 1 more day of rest (Norwich City FC 60d, Southampton FC 59d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.