Millwall FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Millwall FC 40.0% · Draw 24.0% · Swansea City AFC 36.0% Why Millwall FC is favoured Swansea City AFC's Elo (1501) is +36 over Millwall FC (1466); low confidence. Recent: Millwall FC 4W-2D-3L · Swansea City AFC 6W-2D-1L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Millwall FC +0.1, Swansea City AFC +0.9. Form depth Millwall FC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/5 on the road). Swansea City AFC: avg 1.7 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/4 on the road). Swansea City AFC on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Millwall FC 1.3, Swansea City AFC 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Swansea City AFC has a stronger recent record (67% vs 44%) — model favours Millwall FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Millwall FC 0W, 3D, Swansea City AFC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 1-1, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 42.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.