Preston North End FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Preston North End FC 39.0% · Draw 24.7% · Millwall FC 36.3% Why Preston North End FC is favoured Millwall FC's Elo (1466) is +20 over Preston North End FC (1446); low confidence. Recent: Preston North End FC 1W-1D-6L · Millwall FC 3W-2D-3L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Preston North End FC -0.9, Millwall FC +0.0. Form depth Preston North End FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/4 on the road). Millwall FC: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Millwall FC on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Preston North End FC 1.4, Millwall FC 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Millwall FC has a stronger recent record (38% vs 13%) — model favours Preston North End FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 6 prior meetings — Preston North End FC 0W, 6D, Millwall FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-2, 1-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 41.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Preston North End FC has 1 more day of rest (Preston North End FC 56d, Millwall FC 55d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.