Bolton Wanderers FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Bolton Wanderers FC 49.7% · Draw 24.4% · Stoke City FC 26.0% Why Bolton Wanderers FC is favoured Bolton Wanderers FC's Elo (1489) is +10 over Stoke City FC (1478); low confidence. Recent: Bolton Wanderers FC 3W-1D-4L · Stoke City FC 4W-1D-3L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Bolton Wanderers FC -0.5, Stoke City FC +0.1. Form depth Bolton Wanderers FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Stoke City FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Bolton Wanderers FC on a 2-match winning streak. Stoke City FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (Bolton Wanderers FC 1.4, Stoke City FC 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Bolton Wanderers FC 0W, 3D, Stoke City FC 0W (draws are common). Context Bolton Wanderers FC has 1 more day of rest (Bolton Wanderers FC 56d, Stoke City FC 55d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.