West Ham United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities West Ham United FC 37.8% · Draw 23.7% · Queens Park Rangers FC 38.5% Why Queens Park Rangers FC is favoured Queens Park Rangers FC's Elo (1524) is +47 over West Ham United FC (1477); low confidence. Recent: West Ham United FC 4W-3D-1L · Queens Park Rangers FC 3W-4D-1L (last 8). Goal differential per game: West Ham United FC +1.4, Queens Park Rangers FC +0.4. Form depth West Ham United FC: avg 2.8 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Queens Park Rangers FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 2/4 on the road). Queens Park Rangers FC on a 3-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (West Ham United FC 1.8, Queens Park Rangers FC 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — West Ham United FC 0W, 3D, Queens Park Rangers FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 40.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 37.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Queens Park Rangers FC has 1 more day of rest (West Ham United FC 54d, Queens Park Rangers FC 55d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.