Swansea City AFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Swansea City AFC 52.2% · Draw 24.2% · Norwich City FC 23.6% Why Swansea City AFC is favoured Swansea City AFC's Elo (1501) is +11 over Norwich City FC (1490); low confidence. Recent: Swansea City AFC 5W-2D-1L · Norwich City FC 3W-0D-5L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Swansea City AFC +0.9, Norwich City FC -0.1. Form depth Swansea City AFC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 3/4 on the road). Norwich City FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Swansea City AFC on a 2-match winning streak. Norwich City FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Swansea City AFC 1.9, Norwich City FC 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Swansea City AFC 0W, 2D, Norwich City FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 2-1, 5-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.