Norwich City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Norwich City FC 42.8% · Draw 30.2% · Bolton Wanderers FC 27.1% Why Norwich City FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1490 vs 1489) — winner depends on context. Recent: Norwich City FC 3W-0D-4L · Bolton Wanderers FC 2W-1D-4L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Norwich City FC +0.0, Bolton Wanderers FC -0.7. Form depth Norwich City FC: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). Bolton Wanderers FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (Norwich City FC 1.8, Bolton Wanderers FC 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Norwich City FC 0W, 1D, Bolton Wanderers FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 47.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.