Preston North End FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Preston North End FC 39.3% · Draw 28.0% · Lincoln City FC 32.7% Why Preston North End FC is favoured Lincoln City FC's Elo (1500) is +54 over Preston North End FC (1446); low confidence. Recent: Preston North End FC 1W-0D-5L · Lincoln City FC 1W-2D-2L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Preston North End FC -1.0, Lincoln City FC -0.4. Form depth Preston North End FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). Lincoln City FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 1/2 on the road). Lincoln City FC on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (Preston North End FC 1.1, Lincoln City FC 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context Preston North End FC has 1 more day of rest (Preston North End FC 28d, Lincoln City FC 27d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.