Wrexham AFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Wrexham AFC 55.9% · Draw 23.0% · Burnley FC 21.1% Why Wrexham AFC is favoured Wrexham AFC's Elo (1510) is +126 over Burnley FC (1384); low confidence. Recent: Wrexham AFC 1W-3D-1L · Burnley FC 0W-2D-3L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Wrexham AFC +0.4, Burnley FC -1.2. Form depth Wrexham AFC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). Burnley FC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 2.4 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Wrexham AFC 1.8, Burnley FC 1.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 64.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 55.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Burnley FC has 2 more days of rest (Wrexham AFC 21d, Burnley FC 23d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.