Derby County FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Derby County FC 40.4% · Draw 30.3% · West Bromwich Albion FC 29.3% Why Derby County FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1514 vs 1519) — winner depends on context. Recent: Derby County FC 1W-1D-3L · West Bromwich Albion FC 3W-1D-1L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Derby County FC -1.0, West Bromwich Albion FC +0.4. Form depth Derby County FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). West Bromwich Albion FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Derby County FC 1.1, West Bromwich Albion FC 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments West Bromwich Albion FC has a stronger recent record (60% vs 20%) — model favours Derby County FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Derby County FC 0W, 3D, West Bromwich Albion FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 0-1, 1-3. Calibration Raw model: 43.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.