Southampton FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Southampton FC 29.0% · Draw 21.4% · Swansea City AFC 49.6% Why Swansea City AFC is favoured Swansea City AFC's Elo (1524) is +205 over Southampton FC (1319); low confidence. Recent: Southampton FC 2W-2D-1L · Swansea City AFC 3W-2D-0L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Southampton FC +1.0, Swansea City AFC +1.2. Form depth Southampton FC: avg 2.2 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 0/3 on the road). Swansea City AFC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.2 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 2/2 on the road). Southampton FC on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (Southampton FC 1.2, Swansea City AFC 1.3) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Southampton FC 0W, 2D, Swansea City AFC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 0-0, 1-3. Calibration Raw model: 20.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 29.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Swansea City AFC has 1 more day of rest (Southampton FC 23d, Swansea City AFC 24d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.