Stoke City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Stoke City FC 37.8% · Draw 29.8% · Charlton Athletic FC 32.5% Why Stoke City FC is favoured Charlton Athletic FC's Elo (1501) is +23 over Stoke City FC (1478); low confidence. Recent: Stoke City FC 1W-0D-3L · Charlton Athletic FC 3W-1D-0L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Stoke City FC -1.3, Charlton Athletic FC +0.8. Form depth Stoke City FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Charlton Athletic FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Stoke City FC 0.9, Charlton Athletic FC 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.