West Bromwich Albion FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities West Bromwich Albion FC 43.7% · Draw 29.2% · Charlton Athletic FC 27.2% Why West Bromwich Albion FC is favoured Recent: West Bromwich Albion FC 2W-0D-1L · Charlton Athletic FC 3W-0D-0L (last 3). Goal differential per game: West Bromwich Albion FC +0.3, Charlton Athletic FC +1.0. Form depth West Bromwich Albion FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). Charlton Athletic FC: avg 1.7 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). Charlton Athletic FC on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (West Bromwich Albion FC 1.3, Charlton Athletic FC 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — West Bromwich Albion FC 0W, 5D, Charlton Athletic FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-0, 2-2. Calibration Raw model: 48.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.