Queens Park Rangers FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Queens Park Rangers FC 46.1% · Draw 29.2% · Cardiff City FC 24.7% Why Queens Park Rangers FC is favoured Queens Park Rangers FC's Elo (1515) is +15 over Cardiff City FC (1500); low confidence. Recent: Queens Park Rangers FC 2W-1D-0L · Cardiff City FC 0W-3D-0L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Queens Park Rangers FC +1.0, Cardiff City FC +0.0. Form depth Queens Park Rangers FC: avg 1.7 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 2/2 on the road). Cardiff City FC: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Cardiff City FC on a 3-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Queens Park Rangers FC 1.7, Cardiff City FC 1.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Queens Park Rangers FC 0W, 2D, Cardiff City FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 0-2, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 52.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Queens Park Rangers FC has 3 more days of rest (Queens Park Rangers FC 18d, Cardiff City FC 15d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.