Portsmouth FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Portsmouth FC 43.1% · Draw 29.5% · Derby County FC 27.4% Why Portsmouth FC is favoured Recent: Portsmouth FC 1W-0D-2L · Derby County FC 0W-1D-2L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Portsmouth FC -0.3, Derby County FC -1.3. Form depth Portsmouth FC: avg 1.7 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). Derby County FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.5 total goals (Portsmouth FC 2.0, Derby County FC 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 6 prior meetings — Portsmouth FC 0W, 6D, Derby County FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 1-1, 2-2. Calibration Raw model: 47.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.