Sheffield United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sheffield United FC 42.1% · Draw 29.8% · Bolton Wanderers FC 28.1% Why Sheffield United FC is favoured Bolton Wanderers FC's Elo (1510) is +10 over Sheffield United FC (1500); low confidence. Recent: Sheffield United FC 0W-3D-0L · Bolton Wanderers FC 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Sheffield United FC +0.0, Bolton Wanderers FC +0.0. Form depth Sheffield United FC: avg 0.7 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Bolton Wanderers FC: avg 0.7 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Sheffield United FC on a 3-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~1.3 total goals (Sheffield United FC 0.7, Bolton Wanderers FC 0.7) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 45.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Bolton Wanderers FC has 1 more day of rest (Sheffield United FC 16d, Bolton Wanderers FC 17d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.