Preston North End FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Preston North End FC 39.0% · Draw 29.2% · Bristol City FC 31.8% Why Preston North End FC is favoured Recent: Preston North End FC 0W-0D-3L · Bristol City FC 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Preston North End FC -1.3, Bristol City FC -0.3. Form depth Preston North End FC: avg 0.7 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Bristol City FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Preston North End FC on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Preston North End FC 1.2, Bristol City FC 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Preston North End FC 0W, 5D, Bristol City FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-2, 0-0, 2-2.