Derby County FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Derby County FC 39.6% · Draw 30.1% · Swansea City AFC 30.2% Why Derby County FC is favoured Recent: Derby County FC 0W-1D-1L · Swansea City AFC 1W-1D-0L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Derby County FC -0.5, Swansea City AFC +0.5. Form depth Derby County FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Swansea City AFC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Derby County FC 0W, 2D, Swansea City AFC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 1-2, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 41.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.