Wolverhampton Wanderers FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 42.0% · Draw 25.0% · Stoke City FC 32.9% Why Wolverhampton Wanderers FC is favoured Stoke City FC's Elo (1467) is +108 over Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (1359); low confidence. Recent: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1W-1D-0L · Stoke City FC 0W-0D-2L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC +1.0, Stoke City FC -1.5. Form depth Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: avg 2.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Stoke City FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Stoke City FC on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0W, 2D, Stoke City FC 0W (draws are common). Context Wolverhampton Wanderers FC has 1 more day of rest (Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 14d, Stoke City FC 13d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.