Southampton FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Southampton FC 29.9% · Draw 23.1% · Millwall FC 46.9% Why Millwall FC is favoured Millwall FC's Elo (1485) is +171 over Southampton FC (1314); low confidence. Recent: Southampton FC 1W-0D-1L · Millwall FC 2W-0D-0L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Southampton FC +0.5, Millwall FC +2.5. Form depth Southampton FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Millwall FC: avg 2.5 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Millwall FC on a 2-match winning streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Southampton FC 0W, 4D, Millwall FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 3-2, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 22.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 29.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.