Millwall FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Millwall FC 46.3% · Draw 29.6% · Norwich City FC 24.1% Why Millwall FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1485 vs 1490) — winner depends on context. Recent: Millwall FC 1W-0D-0L · Norwich City FC 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Millwall FC +2.0, Norwich City FC -1.0. Form depth Millwall FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 on the road). Norwich City FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Millwall FC 0W, 2D, Norwich City FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 1-2, 3-1. Calibration Raw model: 53.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.