Lincoln City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Lincoln City FC 44.4% · Draw 29.3% · Portsmouth FC 26.2% Why Lincoln City FC is favoured Recent: Lincoln City FC 0W-0D-1L · Portsmouth FC 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Lincoln City FC -1.0, Portsmouth FC -2.0. Form depth Lincoln City FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Portsmouth FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Lincoln City FC 0W, 2D, Portsmouth FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 49.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.