Swansea City AFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Swansea City AFC 45.9% · Draw 29.4% · Sheffield United FC 24.7% Why Swansea City AFC is favoured Swansea City AFC's Elo (1510) is +10 over Sheffield United FC (1500); low confidence. Recent: Swansea City AFC 1W-0D-0L · Sheffield United FC 0W-1D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Swansea City AFC +1.0, Sheffield United FC +0.0. Form depth Swansea City AFC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/1 on the road). Sheffield United FC: avg 0.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Swansea City AFC 0W, 2D, Sheffield United FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-3, 1-0, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 52.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.