Stoke City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Stoke City FC 42.9% · Draw 30.2% · Swansea City AFC 26.9% Why Stoke City FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Stoke City FC 0W, 3D, Swansea City AFC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 2-1, 3-1. Calibration Raw model: 47.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.