Wolverhampton Wanderers FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 33.4% · Draw 23.0% · Blackburn Rovers FC 43.6% Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0W, 2D, Blackburn Rovers FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 26.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 33.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.