Sparta Rotterdam scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sparta Rotterdam 48.1% · Draw 28.0% · FC Utrecht 23.8% Why Sparta Rotterdam is favoured Sparta Rotterdam's Elo (1506) is +35 over FC Utrecht (1471); low confidence. Recent: Sparta Rotterdam 1W-0D-1L · FC Utrecht 0W-0D-2L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Sparta Rotterdam +0.5, FC Utrecht -2.0. Form depth Sparta Rotterdam: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). FC Utrecht: avg 1.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). FC Utrecht on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Sparta Rotterdam 0W, 1D, FC Utrecht 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 2-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 55.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 48.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.