Hull City AFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Hull City AFC 70.9% · Draw 19.4% · Southampton FC 9.7% Why Hull City AFC is favoured Hull City AFC's Elo (1515) is +219 over Southampton FC (1296); low confidence. Recent: Hull City AFC 3W-5D-2L · Southampton FC 7W-3D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Hull City AFC +0.3, Southampton FC +1.4. Form depth Hull City AFC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Southampton FC: avg 2.3 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Hull City AFC 1.1, Southampton FC 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Southampton FC has a stronger recent record (70% vs 30%) — model favours Hull City AFC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Hull City AFC 0W, 1D, Southampton FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 3-1, 1-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.