CD Independiente Medellín
vs Cusco FC_

Most likely scorelines

• 1–0MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  23.0%

  Fair odds

  4.35

• 2–0+Save pick

  Prob

  19.5%

  Fair odds

  5.13

• 0–0+Save pick

  Prob

  13.6%

  Fair odds

  7.36

• 3–0+Save pick

  Prob

  11.0%

  Fair odds

  9.09

• 1–1+Save pick

  Prob

  7.0%

  Fair odds

  14.27

• 2–1+Save pick

  Prob

  5.9%

  Fair odds

  16.85

• 4–0+Save pick

  Prob

  4.7%

  Fair odds

  21.48

• 0–1+Save pick

  Prob

  4.1%

  Fair odds

  24.17

CD Independiente Medellín scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  Home win + BTTS yes

  -21%

  Joint prob

  12.2%

  Naïve (book)

  15.5%

  Fair odds

  8.21

• Home win + Over 2.5

  Home win + Over 2.5

  +28%

  Joint prob

  29.9%

  Naïve (book)

  23.4%

  Fair odds

  3.35

• Away win + BTTS

  Away win + BTTS yes

  -2%

  Joint prob

  1.3%

  Naïve (book)

  1.3%

  Fair odds

  77.58

• Away win + Over 2.5

  Away win + Over 2.5

  -31%

  Joint prob

  1.4%

  Naïve (book)

  2.0%

  Fair odds

  73.62

• Draw + Under 2.5

  Draw + Under 2.5

  +41%

  Joint prob

  20.6%

  Naïve (book)

  14.6%

  Fair odds

  4.86

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.