| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0MODE | 23.0% | 4.35 | ||
| 2–0 | 19.5% | 5.13 | ||
| 0–0 | 13.6% | 7.36 | ||
| 3–0 | 11.0% | 9.09 | ||
| 1–1 | 7.0% | 14.27 | ||
| 2–1 | 5.9% | 16.85 | ||
| 4–0 | 4.7% | 21.48 | ||
| 0–1 | 4.1% | 24.17 |
CD Independiente Medellín scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS Home win + BTTS yes | 12.2% | 15.5% | -21% | 8.21 |
Home win + Over 2.5 Home win + Over 2.5 | 29.9% | 23.4% | +28% | 3.35 |
Away win + BTTS Away win + BTTS yes | 1.3% | 1.3% | -2% | 77.58 |
Away win + Over 2.5 Away win + Over 2.5 | 1.4% | 2.0% | -31% | 73.62 |
Draw + Under 2.5 Draw + Under 2.5 | 20.6% | 14.6% | +41% | 4.86 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
CD Independiente Medellín 56.6% · Draw 26.0% · Cusco FC 17.4%